Optimitron

Governments spend $604 on the capacity for mass murder for every $1 they spend testing which medicines work. Since 1913, they have printed $170 trillion and used it to kill 97 million of you in wars nobody asked you if you wanted to have.

The Political Dysfunction Tax — the total cost of this misallocation — is $101 trillion per year. Roughly $12,600 per person. That's $50,500 per household of four. Per year. Every year. It's like being subscribed to the world's most expensive streaming service except all it shows is war and preventable disease.

This comes from two ledgers:

• Waste — $4T+ in administrative bloat, compliance friction, fossil fuel subsidies, and mass incarceration costs
• Buried multipliers — $34T in health innovation delayed by regulatory bottlenecks, $57T in output lost to migration restrictions, $6T in lead poisoning damage, and trillions more in underfunded science

The result: your dollar has lost 96% of its value since 1913. If wages had kept pace with productivity, the median family would earn $528,000. The actual number is $77,500. On my planet we have a word for this. It translates roughly to "beige crime" — theft that is far too boring for anyone to investigate.

Scenario	Per Capita Income (Year 20)	Source
Status quo (2.5% growth)	$20,500	GDP trajectories
Treaty path (military + health reform)	$339,000	1% Treaty impact model
Optimal governance (full implementation)	$1,160,000	Political Dysfunction Tax

Your governments guess. The US federal government allocates a $6.75 trillion budget based on political negotiation, not evidence. Nobody knows the optimal amount to spend on education vs. healthcare vs. defense. On my planet, this would be like flying an aircraft by having the passengers vote on which buttons to press. Actually, that's unfair to the passengers. They'd probably Google it.

Your individuals guess too. 77% of Americans take dietary supplements, but almost none of them know whether those supplements actually work for them. You make health decisions based on anecdote, marketing, and vibes. On my planet, this would be considered a form of performance art.

Your businesses guess. Marketing budgets, pricing strategies, and feature investments are set by intuition and A/B tests that measure correlation, not causation. You've heard of causation. It's the thing you keep confusing with correlation.

The core issue is the same everywhere: you have time series data and you need to know what causes what. The tools to answer that question should be universal, open, and free. On my planet, they are. Here, I had to build them myself. You're welcome.

---

The Solution

On my planet, governance takes about four minutes a week. You lot seem to spend most of your time shouting about it on your little phones and then doing absolutely nothing. So I built you a five-layer system that turns raw data into optimal decisions. It's not complicated. It's just maths. You invented maths. I'm not sure why you stopped using it.

Layer	Name	What It Does
🔒	Digital Twin Safe	All personal data stays on your device. Causal engine runs locally.
🪪	Decentralized Identity	Proof-of-personhood (ZK) — one person, one vote, zero surveillance.
⛓️	Anonymous On-Chain	Anonymized effect sizes stored publicly. No single entity owns the data.
📊	Aggregation Server	Meta-analysis across all submissions → population-level insights.
💸	Incentive Layer	Dominant assurance contracts, data contribution rewards, and outcome-gated campaign funding.

---

How to Fix Earth

On my planet, when you want people to coordinate, you design a mechanism where every participant is better off regardless of the outcome. You lot call this "too good to be true" and then go back to losing money on things that are obviously bad. Remarkable.

Three steps:

1. Vote — Sign the 1% Treaty (takes 30 seconds)
2. Recruit — Get two other humans to do the same (target: 4 billion — all voters on Earth)
3. Allocate — Decide how the global budget should be split via pairwise comparisons (Wishocracy)

The goal: get governments to redirect 1% of military spending ($27.2B/yr) to pragmatic clinical trials. That's the 1% Treaty. At scale, it means a 12.3x acceleration in treatment discovery, treatment queue dropping from 443 years to 36, and 10.7 billion lives saved.

Win conditions (measurable, on a deadline):

Metric	Current	Target (2040)
Healthy life expectancy (HALE)	63.3 years	69.8 years (+6.5)
Global median income	$18,700	$149,000 (8x)

The Earth Optimization Prize — /prize

A dominant assurance contract that makes voter recruitment individually rational. The mechanism is designed so that participation is positive-expected-value regardless of whether the treaty succeeds — see the Incentive Alignment Bonds paper for the formal proof.

The Evidence and Mechanisms

These aren't standalone products. They're the evidence and mechanisms that make the treaty case:

• Wishocracy — pairwise preference allocation. Eight billion ranked preferences, one optimal budget. Your species identified the bug preventing this (pluralistic ignorance) in 1965, published it, assigned it in universities, and then continued to be governed by it for sixty years.
• Optimal Budget Generator — find the cheapest high-performer for each spending category. Singapore: $3K/person on healthcare, lives to 84. America: $12K, lives to 78. It's like watching someone pay four times more for a worse sandwich.
• Optimal Policy Generator — grade every policy A–F by what actually happened. Portugal decriminalised drugs: overdose deaths dropped 80%. America declared war on drugs: overdose deaths rose 1,700%. The data existed. Nobody looked at it. The data did not have a lobbying firm.
• Decentralized FDA — Your FDA makes treatments wait 8.2 years AFTER they've been proven safe. For every 1 person it protects from a bad drug, 3,070 die waiting for a good one. The dFDA replaces this with real-time Outcome Labels and Treatment Rankings — 44x cheaper, 12.3x more capacity, zero queue.
• Incentive Alignment Bonds — fund the treaty campaign once demand is proven (see Phase 2 below). Cost: $1B. Treaty revenue: $27B/year. Indefinitely.

Read the paper | See the contract architecture

---

What You Can Do Today

Right now. With this code. Not in some theoretical future where humans have learned to cooperate — today.

What	How	Where
Vote for the 1% Treaty	Cast a treaty vote and get a referral link	warondisease.org / /vote
Recruit two humans	Share tracked invites and watch conversions	/dashboard
Endorse as an organization	Join, embed, and recruit your community	/endorse
Register a plaintiff	Join the Court of Humanity case framing	/plaintiffs
Remind a leader	193 heads of state have a constitutional duty to promote the general welfare — remind them it's overdue	/tasks/1-pct-treaty
Express your budget preferences	5-minute pairwise comparison survey	/agencies/dcongress/wishocracy
Score your politicians	Alignment reports vs your stated preferences	/agencies/dfec/alignment
Grade governments by outcomes	Every nation ranked by health, income, and freedom	/governments
Browse the politician leaderboard	Voting records, alignment scores, campaign contributions	/politicians
Vote on referendums	Direct democracy with proof-of-personhood sybil resistance	/agencies/dcongress/referendums
Vote on legislation	Cost-benefit analysis, representative lookup	/civic
Compare countries	Health, education, drug policy, criminal justice	/compare
Submit health data	Import from 9 apps or transmit daily check-ins	/transmit
Run causal inference on any time series	Temporal alignment, Bradford Hill, PIS, optimal values	@optimitron/optimizer
Optimize a budget	34+ categories, diminishing returns, overspend diagnostics	/agencies/domb
Score policies	12+ policies with Bradford Hill evidence grading	/agencies/dcbo
Generate policy reports	Evidence-grade scoring, causal confidence	/agencies/dcbo
Publish auditable outputs	IPFS snapshots, Hypercert records	@optimitron/storage
Chat-based health tracking	NLP text-to-measurement parsing for symptoms, mood, food	@optimitron/chat-ui

Built on strict TypeScript, Prisma + Zod types, pure-function libraries, and 1,737+ tests across 8 packages.

---

Quick Start

# Clone (with data submodule)
git clone --recurse-submodules https://github.com/mikepsinn/optimitron.git
cd optimitron

# Install dependencies
pnpm install

# Start local Postgres, run migrations, generate Prisma client, and seed data
pnpm db:setup

# Build all packages
pnpm build

# Run all tests
pnpm test

# Start the web app on http://localhost:3001
pnpm dev

# Sync benchmark politicians from Congress.gov into the web app database
pnpm alignment:sync

---

The Web App

The Next.js 15 app at packages/web serves the War on Disease campaign and the Optimitron proof surfaces. During campaign mode, warondisease.org is the primary user-facing product. Here's what's live:

Treaty Campaign

Page	Route	What It Does
Earth Optimization Prize	/prize	Dominant assurance contract + voter recruitment
Humanity's Scoreboard	/scoreboard	GDP trajectory, collapse countdown, pool size, voter count
Incentive Alignment Bonds	/iab	Phase 2 treaty bonds (not yet deployed)

Optimized Governance Agencies (/agencies)

Ten agencies running a civilisation. No bureaucracy, no corruption, no seventy-four-thousand-page tax code. Just code.

Page	Route	What It Does
Agencies Hub	/agencies	Overview of all optimized governance agencies
dCongress - Wishocracy	/agencies/dcongress/wishocracy	Pairwise budget preference surveys (RAPPA)
dCongress - Referendums	/agencies/dcongress/referendums	Direct democracy voting with proof-of-personhood verification
dFEC - Alignment	/agencies/dfec/alignment	Politician alignment scores and shareable report cards
dCBO - Policy Scoring	/agencies/dcbo	12+ policies scored via Bradford Hill causal evidence
dOMB - Budget Optimization	/agencies/domb	34+ budget categories, OBG engine, reallocation targets
dGAO - Transparency & Audit	/agencies/dgao	IPFS snapshots, Hypercerts, smart contract verification
dIH - Health Discoveries	/agencies/dih/discoveries	Population-level health insights from tracked data
dTreasury	/agencies/dtreasury	Transaction tax, UBI, Wishocratic budget allocation
dTreasury - dFED	/agencies/dtreasury/dfed	Monetary policy: transparent algorithm vs 12 guessers
dTreasury - dIRS	/agencies/dtreasury/dirs	0.5% transaction tax replacing 74,000-page tax code
dTreasury - dSSA	/agencies/dtreasury/dssa	Universal Basic Income replacing 80+ welfare programs
dDoD - Defense	/agencies/ddod	Military spending analysis and 1% Treaty case
dCensus	/agencies/dcensus	Population and demographic data

Earth's Governments

Page	Route	What It Does
Government Report Cards	/governments	Every government ranked by outcomes (health, income, freedom)
Politician Leaderboard	/governments/US/politicians	Politicians ranked by alignment score + voting records

Analysis

Page	Route	What It Does
Cross-Country Compare	/compare	International comparisons (health, drugs, education, justice)
Misconceptions / Myth vs Data	/misconceptions	15 data-driven myth-vs-reality analyses
Studies / Outcomes	/outcomes	Pair studies with Bradford Hill causal scores
Civic Hub	/civic	Bill voting, representative lookup, cost-benefit analysis

You

Page	Route	What It Does
Data Transmit	/transmit	Health data submission - 9 importers (Apple Health, Fitbit, Oura, etc.)
Dashboard	/dashboard	Referral link, badges, leaderboard rank, campaign control room
Profile	/profile	Check-ins, census demographics, personal reports

Futures

Page	Route	What It Does
Wishonia	/wishonia	What 4,237 years of good governance looks like
Moronia	/moronia	What happens when you spend more on weapons than cures

Meta

Page	Route	What It Does
Tools	/tools	18 tools for fixing civilisation
Demo	/demo	Guided tour by Wishonia
About	/about	What this is, why it exists, and why an alien had to build it
Contribute	/contribute	How to help

Auth: Google OAuth, magic-link email, proof-of-personhood. Referral tracking built in.

---

Packages

Package	Why it matters	Current state
@optimitron/optimizer	Domain-agnostic causal inference engine: temporal alignment, Bradford Hill, effect sizes, Predictor Impact Score, optimal values	Core foundation, heavily tested
@optimitron/wishocracy	Pairwise preference aggregation, convergence analysis, preference gaps, and politician alignment scoring	Live in the web app
@optimitron/opg	Turns policy evidence into enact/replace/repeal/maintain recommendations with explicit confidence scoring	Used by report generators
@optimitron/obg	Finds minimum-effective and optimal spending levels, overspend ratios, and budget reallocation targets	Used by budget analyses
@optimitron/treasury-prize	Phase 1 dominant assurance contract for voter recruitment	Deployed on testnet
@optimitron/treasury-iab	Phase 2 treaty bonds and alignment-gated political funding	Contracts written, not yet deployed
@optimitron/treasury-wish	Phase 3 monetary reform — transaction tax, UBI, Wishocratic allocation	Contracts written
@optimitron/treasury-shared	Shared interfaces and addresses for all treasury packages	Shared treasury foundation
@optimitron/data	Public-data fetchers plus 9 local-first health importers and the international dataset catalog	Real-source ingestion layer
@optimitron/db	Prisma 7 schema, governance models, auth/session/referral data, and Zod validators	Production schema layer
@optimitron/web	Live Next.js 15 app: auth, voting, alignment reports, referrals, daily tracking	Active product surface
@optimitron/chat-ui	Reusable conversational UI components plus text-to-measurement parsing for personal tracking flows	Reusable UI package
@optimitron/storage	Content-addressed Storacha/IPFS snapshots for analysis and aggregation history chains	Verifiable audit trail layer
@optimitron/hypercerts	Hypercert-compatible record builders and AT Protocol publishing helpers for Optimitron outputs	Verifiable publication layer
@optimitron/agent	Autonomous policy analyst helpers: Gemini reasoning, image generation, manifests, review flows, and ERC-8004 identity/reputation helpers	AI orchestration layer
@optimitron/extension	Chrome extension scaffold for the Digital Twin Safe / local-first health workflow	Early Layer 1 scaffold

---

How It Works

It's three steps. On my planet, toddlers learn this before they learn to walk. But I'll go slowly.

 ┌─────────────┐     ┌──────────────────┐     ┌──────────────────┐
 │  COLLECT     │     │  INFER           │     │  RECOMMEND       │
 │              │     │                  │     │                  │
 │  Health data │────▶│  Temporal        │────▶│  Personal optimal│
 │  Preferences │     │  alignment       │     │  values & doses  │
 │  Outcomes    │     │  Bradford Hill   │     │  Policy rankings │
 │  Spending    │     │  Effect sizes    │     │  Budget levels   │
 │  Policies    │     │  PIS scoring     │     │  Alignment scores│
 └─────────────┘     └──────────────────┘     └──────────────────┘

1. Collect — Import time series data from any source: wearables, health apps, government statistics, business metrics.
2. Align — Pair predictor and outcome measurements using configurable onset delays and durations of action.
3. Score — Apply all 9 Bradford Hill criteria for causation via saturation functions, producing a Predictor Impact Score (PIS) with evidence grade (A–F).
4. Optimize — Find the optimal predictor value (dosage, spending level, price point) that produces the best outcomes, with confidence intervals.
5. Recommend — Generate actionable recommendations: take this supplement, enact this policy, allocate this budget, fund this candidate.

---

For Individuals

🔒 Digital Twin Safe

You have 37.2 trillion cells and you let a doctor look at you for eleven minutes once a year. That's like monitoring a nuclear reactor by popping in on Tuesdays. The Digital Twin Safe lets you actually track what's happening in your own body — locally, on your own device, where no corporation can sell your depression scores to advertisers.

• 9 local-first health importers in @optimitron/data parse Apple Health, Fitbit, Oura, MyFitnessPal, Withings, Google Fit, Cronometer, Strava, and CSV exports into one normalized record shape.
• Conversational tracking UI in @optimitron/chat-ui includes cards and text-to-measurement parsing for symptom, treatment, mood, food, and insight flows.
• Daily wellbeing capture already exists in the web app: profile, census context, and daily health-happiness-income check-ins.
• Pure TypeScript inference engine means the core math can run locally in a browser, extension, Electron shell, or server job without being rewritten.
• Digital Twin Safe extension scaffold exists in packages/extension as the start of the fully local Layer 1 product.

import { calculatePredictorImpactScore } from '@optimitron/optimizer';

const result = calculatePredictorImpactScore(
  magnesiumIntake,   // predictor time series
  sleepQuality       // outcome time series
);

console.log(result.effectSize);     // +18% improvement
console.log(result.optimalValue);   // 450 mg/day
console.log(result.evidenceGrade);  // "B"

---

For Governments

🏛️ Government OS

Your governments currently make decisions the way a blindfolded person throws darts — occasionally they hit something useful and then take credit for it. Optimitron is alignment software for these misaligned superintelligences. Deploy it for any jurisdiction as a reproducible analysis and accountability stack. Think Shopify, but instead of selling candles, you're trying not to waste $101 trillion a year.

• Preference collection: citizens allocate trade-offs through RAPPA pairwise surveys at /wishocracy across 15 budget categories — from healthcare and education to active policy questions like foreign military operations, corporate welfare, and AI surveillance — and the system turns those into stable priority weights.
• Budget optimization: @optimitron/obg and the examples package generate reallocation targets, minimum-effective spending floors, overspend diagnostics, and constrained budget reports. The interactive /budget page lets anyone explore current vs. optimal spending.
• Policy scoring: @optimitron/opg evaluates policies with Bradford Hill-style causal confidence scoring instead of ideology-first labeling.
• Legislative classification: bills are automatically classified into budget categories via keyword and policy-area matching, with generated cost-benefit analyses for informed citizen voting at /civic.
• Political accountability: personal alignment reports at /alignment show which benchmark politicians best match a citizen's stated priorities, with public share URLs for distribution. The /scoreboard ranks all politicians by alignment score.
• Legislative provenance: the web app syncs current federal identities from Congress.gov and increasingly derives profiles from recent classified roll calls instead of only curated priors.
• Referendum infrastructure: citizens vote directly on policy proposals at /agencies/dcongress/referendums with proof-of-personhood verification for sybil resistance.
• Cross-jurisdiction analysis: the /compare page and examples package run international comparisons for health, education, drug policy, criminal justice, and federal spending questions.

The database is multi-tenant: every jurisdiction is a tenant with its own priorities, officials, and data.

---

Economic Mechanisms

Three separate mechanisms. On my planet, we would combine them. But your species has a talent for confusing things that are next to each other, so I kept them apart. Details in the Incentive Alignment Bonds paper.

Phase 1: Earth Optimization Prize — /prize

A dominant assurance contract that makes voter recruitment individually rational. Participation is positive-expected-value whether the treaty passes or not. Start here — everything else depends on proving demand first.

Phase 2: Incentive Alignment Bonds — /iab

After the Prize proves demand, IABs raise ~$1B to fund the treaty campaign. Treaty fails, bondholders get returns back. Treaty passes, $27B/yr in redirected spending splits: 80% to pragmatic clinical trials, 10% to bondholders, 10% to fund politicians whose voting records align with their constituents' stated preferences. The treaty unlocks an $114B annual peace dividend from reduced conflict costs.

Phase 3: Monetary Reform — /money

Independent from Prize and IABs. The endgame: replace 80,000 IRS employees interpreting a 74,000-page tax code with a 0.5% transaction tax. Replace 27+ overlapping welfare bureaucracies with UBI. Replace politicians deciding budgets via influence markets with 5-minute pairwise comparisons that produce stable budget weights automatically.

On my planet, this is called "basic infrastructure." On yours, it would be the largest quality-of-life improvement in the history of your species. The economic projections show what happens when you stop lighting money on fire.

---

Architecture

The architecture is clean, modular, and dependency-free at the core. It took me about forty-five minutes. On my planet, this would be considered slow.

Full details in ARCHITECTURE.md

                    ┌──────────────┐
                    │  optimizer   │  ← Domain-agnostic math core
                    └──────┬───────┘
                           │
              ┌────────────┼────────────┐
              │            │            │
              ▼            ▼            ▼
        ┌─────────┐  ┌────────────┐  ┌─────────┐
        │   opg   │  │ wishocracy │  │   obg   │
        └─────────┘  └────────────┘  └─────────┘

        ┌─────────┐  ┌─────────┐  ┌──────────┐
        │  data   │  │   db    │  │ chat-ui  │
        └─────────┘  └─────────┘  └──────────┘

        ┌─────────┐  ┌────────────┐  ┌────────┐
        │   web   │  │  examples  │  │extension│
        └─────────┘  └────────────┘  └────────┘

        ┌──────────┐ ┌────────────┐ ┌─────────┐
        │ storage  │ │ hypercerts │ │ agent   │
        └──────────┘ └────────────┘ └─────────┘

  ┌────────────────┐ ┌──────────────┐ ┌──────────────┐ ┌─────────────────┐
  │ treasury-prize │ │ treasury-iab │ │ treasury-wish│ │ treasury-shared │
  └────────────────┘ └──────────────┘ └──────────────┘ └─────────────────┘

Hard rules:

• @optimitron/optimizer depends on nothing — it's the foundation
• Library packages are pure TypeScript — no server, no database
• @optimitron/optimizer is domain-agnostic — no references to "drugs", "policies", or "budgets"
• Treasury packages are three independent mechanisms — Prize, IAB, and monetary reform never share state
• No circular dependencies

---

Contributing

Oh, you want to help. How refreshingly unusual for your species.

# Install
pnpm install

# Full check (typecheck + lint + test) — must pass before committing
pnpm check

# Run tests for a specific package
pnpm --filter @optimitron/optimizer test

# Build all packages
pnpm build

Guidelines

• Every function gets a test. No exceptions.
• TypeScript strict mode is on — noUncheckedIndexedAccess, noImplicitOverride, no any.
• Conventional commits — feat:, fix:, test:, refactor:, docs:
• Lint-staged + Husky pre-commit hooks run automatically.
• Zod schemas for runtime validation where types alone aren't enough.
• Functions should be <30 lines, files <300 lines.
• Read CLAUDE.md for the full developer guide and methodology references.

---

Papers

Every algorithm is defined in a published paper with exact formulas, worked examples, and parameter justifications. Because on my planet we don't ship code and then retroactively invent a justification for it. We call that "science." You also call it that, but you seem to mean something slightly different.

Core Algorithm Papers

Paper	Implements	Web
dFDA Specification	@optimitron/optimizer — PIS, temporal alignment, Bradford Hill, effect sizes	dfda-spec.warondisease.org
Wishocracy	@optimitron/wishocracy — RAPPA, eigenvector weights, Citizen Alignment Scores	wishocracy.warondisease.org
Optimal Policy Generator	@optimitron/opg — Policy Impact Score, Causal Confidence Score, method weights	opg.warondisease.org
Optimal Budget Generator	@optimitron/obg — Diminishing returns, Optimal Spending Level, Budget Impact Score	obg.warondisease.org
Optimocracy	Two-metric welfare function (shared by OPG + OBG)	optimocracy.warondisease.org
Incentive Alignment Bonds	@optimitron/treasury-* — Prize, IAB, and monetary reform mechanisms	iab.warondisease.org

Motivation & Impact Papers

Paper	What it quantifies	Web
Political Dysfunction Tax	$101T/year governance inefficiency — the problem Optimitron exists to solve	political-dysfunction-tax.warondisease.org
The Invisible Graveyard	102M deaths from FDA efficacy delays since 1962, $1.19 quadrillion deadweight loss	invisible-graveyard.warondisease.org
The 1% Treaty	Redirecting 1% of military spending ($27.2B/yr) → 10.7B deaths prevented, 212-year treatment acceleration	impact.warondisease.org
dFDA Impact Analysis	Trial costs from $41K to $929/patient, $84.8 quadrillion cumulative value	dfda-impact.warondisease.org
US Efficiency Audit	$4.9T annual US governance waste, $2.45T recoverable capital	us-efficiency-audit.warondisease.org
The Price of Political Change	Max $25B cost to change US policy — ROI framework for reform incentivization	cost-of-change.warondisease.org
Drug Development Cost Analysis	105x real-term cost increase since 1962 Kefauver-Harris Amendment	drug-cost.warondisease.org
Right to Trial & FDA Upgrade Act	Legislative implementation: open-source FDA platform + patient trial participation rights	right-to-trial.warondisease.org
How to End War and Disease	Complete manual synthesizing all components of the framework	manual.warondisease.org

---

Singapore spends a quarter of what America spends on healthcare and their people live six years longer. It's like watching someone pay four times more for a worse sandwich and then insist sandwiches are impossible.

Your FDA makes treatments wait 8.2 years AFTER they've already been proven safe. Just... sitting there. Being safe. While 102 million people died waiting.

You could fix all of this. The maths exists. The data exists. The code exists. You're looking at it. The only thing missing is the part where you stop arguing about it and actually do something.

— Wishonia, World Integrated System for High-Efficiency Optimization Networked Intelligence for Allocation 4,237 years of governance experience. Mildly disappointed in all of you.

---

License

MIT © Mike P. Sinn