heuristic for power plant efficiency by age

config/config.default.yaml

@@ -425,6 +425,7 @@ renewable:
 
 # docs in https://pypsa-eur.readthedocs.io/en/latest/configuration.html#conventional
 conventional:
+  estimate_efficiencies: false
   unit_commitment: false
   dynamic_fuel_price: false
   fuel_price_rolling_window: 6

config/schema.default.json

@@ -649,6 +649,11 @@
       "additionalProperties": true,
       "description": "Configuration for `conventional` settings.",
       "properties": {
+        "estimate_efficiencies": {
+          "default": false,
+          "description": "Estimate missing plant-level efficiencies from a carrier- and age-dependent linear heuristic.",
+          "type": "boolean"
+        },
         "unit_commitment": {
           "default": false,
           "description": "Allow the overwrite of ramp_limit_up, ramp_limit_start_up, ramp_limit_shut_down, p_min_pu, min_up_time, min_down_time, and start_up_cost of conventional generators. Refer to the CSV file 'unit_commitment.csv'.",
@@ -9768,6 +9773,11 @@
       "additionalProperties": true,
       "description": "Configuration for `conventional` settings.",
       "properties": {
+        "estimate_efficiencies": {
+          "default": false,
+          "description": "Estimate missing plant-level efficiencies from a carrier- and age-dependent linear heuristic.",
+          "type": "boolean"
+        },
         "unit_commitment": {
           "default": false,
           "description": "Allow the overwrite of ramp_limit_up, ramp_limit_start_up, ramp_limit_shut_down, p_min_pu, min_up_time, min_down_time, and start_up_cost of conventional generators. Refer to the CSV file 'unit_commitment.csv'.",

doc/release_notes.rst

@@ -11,6 +11,8 @@ Upcoming Release
 
 * Add configuration schema updater that allows changes to be made in soft-forks without touching base PyPSA-Eur files (#2014).
 
+* New ``conventional: estimate_efficiencies`` option (default ``false``) to fill missing plant-level efficiencies using a carrier- and age-dependent heuristic.
+
 * Adjust ``powerplants_filter`` to include power plants operational in 2025.
 
 * Rewrite mapping of power plant sites to model regions / buses. Previously, power plants were mapped to the nearest bus in the same country.

rules/build_electricity.smk

@@ -801,6 +801,7 @@ rule add_electricity:
         ),
         aggregation_strategies=config_provider("clustering", "aggregation_strategies"),
         exclude_carriers=config_provider("clustering", "exclude_carriers"),
+        estimate_efficiencies=config_provider("conventional", "estimate_efficiencies"),
     input:
         unpack(input_profile_tech),
         unpack(input_class_regions),

scripts/add_electricity.py

@@ -254,6 +254,60 @@ def sanitize_locations(n):
         )
 
 
+def estimate_efficiency(df: pd.DataFrame, reference_year: int = 2025) -> pd.Series:
+    carrier = df.carrier
+    year = df.dateretrofit.combine_first(df.datein)
+
+    offset = carrier.map(
+        {
+            "lignite": 0.25,
+            "coal": 0.28,
+            "CCGT": 0.40,
+            "OCGT": 0.28,
+            "oil": 0.28,
+            "nuclear": 0.33,
+        }
+    )
+    slope = carrier.map(
+        {
+            "lignite": 0.003,
+            "coal": 0.003,
+            "CCGT": 0.004,
+            "OCGT": 0.003,
+            "oil": 0.002,
+            "nuclear": 0.0,
+        }
+    )
+    year0 = carrier.map(
+        {
+            "lignite": 1960,
+            "coal": 1960,
+            "CCGT": 1980,
+            "OCGT": 1970,
+            "oil": 1960,
+            "nuclear": 1960,
+        }
+    )
+    cap = carrier.map(
+        {
+            "lignite": 0.42,
+            "coal": 0.44,
+            "CCGT": 0.60,
+            "OCGT": 0.41,
+            "oil": 0.38,
+            "nuclear": 0.33,
+        }
+    )
+
+    # heuristic linear efficiency estimation
+    eta = (offset + slope * (year - year0)).clip(lower=offset, upper=cap)
+
+    # degradation of efficiency
+    eta *= 1 - (reference_year - year - 10).clip(lower=0) * 0.001
+
+    return eta
+
+
 def add_co2_emissions(n, costs, carriers):
     """
     Add CO2 emissions to the network's carriers attribute.
@@ -270,6 +324,7 @@ def load_and_aggregate_powerplants(
     consider_efficiency_classes: bool = False,
     aggregation_strategies: dict = None,
     exclude_carriers: list = None,
+    estimate_efficiencies: bool = False,
 ) -> pd.DataFrame:
     if not aggregation_strategies:
         aggregation_strategies = {}
@@ -313,7 +368,10 @@ def load_and_aggregate_powerplants(
     ]
     ppl = ppl.join(costs[cost_columns], on="carrier", rsuffix="_r")
 
-    ppl["efficiency"] = ppl.efficiency.combine_first(ppl.efficiency_r)
+    efficiency = ppl.efficiency
+    if estimate_efficiencies:
+        efficiency = efficiency.combine_first(estimate_efficiency(ppl))
+    ppl["efficiency"] = efficiency.combine_first(ppl.efficiency_r)
     ppl["lifetime"] = (ppl.dateout - ppl.datein).fillna(np.inf)
     ppl["build_year"] = ppl.datein.fillna(0).astype(int)
     ppl["marginal_cost"] = (
@@ -1154,6 +1212,7 @@ def attach_stores(
         params.consider_efficiency_classes,
         params.aggregation_strategies,
         params.exclude_carriers,
+        params.estimate_efficiencies,
     )
 
     attach_load(

scripts/lib/validation/config/conventional.py

@@ -18,6 +18,10 @@ class ConventionalConfig(ConfigModel):
 
     model_config = ConfigDict(extra="allow")
 
+    estimate_efficiencies: bool = Field(
+        False,
+        description="Estimate missing plant-level efficiencies from a carrier- and age-dependent linear heuristic.",
+    )
     unit_commitment: bool = Field(
         False,
         description="Allow the overwrite of ramp_limit_up, ramp_limit_start_up, ramp_limit_shut_down, p_min_pu, min_up_time, min_down_time, and start_up_cost of conventional generators. Refer to the CSV file 'unit_commitment.csv'.",