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src/tex/bib.bib

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year = {2024}
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}
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@software{mccluskey_kinisi_2022,
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author = {McCluskey, A. R. and Dunn, J. and Morgan, B. J. and Squires, A. G. and Richardson, H.},
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license = {MIT},
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title = {{kinisi-1.1.0}},
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howpublished = {https://github.com/bjmorgan/kinisi},
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version = {1.1.0},
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year = {2024}
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@article{McCluskey2024,
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title = {kinisi: Bayesian analysis of mass transport from
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molecular dynamics simulations},
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volume = {9},
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DOI = {10.21105/joss.05984},
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number = {94},
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journal = {J. Open Source Softw.},
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author = {McCluskey, A. R. and Squires, A. G. and Dunn, J. and Coles, S. W. and Morgan, B. J.},
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year = {2024},
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pages = {5984}
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}
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@article{mccluskey_uravu_2020,
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}
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@misc{coles_llzo_zenodo_2022,
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title = {Molecular dynamics simulations of cubic LLZO at 700 K},
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title = {Molecular dynamics simulations of cubic {LLZO} at 700 {K}},
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doi = {10.5281/zenodo.10532134},
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url = {https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10532134},
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publisher={Zenodo},
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title = {Diffusion of Isolated {DNA} Molecules: {D}ependence on Length and Topology},
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volume = {103},
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ISSN = {1091-6490},
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url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0601903103},
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DOI = {10.1073/pnas.0601903103},
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number = {19},
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journal = {Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci.},
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title = {Hydroxide Ion Diffusion in Anion-Exchange Membranes at Low Hydration: {I}nsights from Ab Initio Molecular Dynamics},
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volume = {31},
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ISSN = {1520-5002},
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url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1021/acs.chemmater.9b01824},
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number = {15},
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journal = {Chem. Mater.},
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publisher = {American Chemical Society (ACS)},

src/tex/ms.tex

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\let\oldaddcontentsline\addcontentsline
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\renewcommand{\addcontentsline}[3]{}
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\footnotetext[1]{While estimating $\D$ by fitting a linear model to MSD data is, perhaps, the most commonly used approach in the literature, alternative methods that avoid linear fitting of MSD data also exist; see, for example, Refs.~{\protect\cite{VestergaardEtAl_PhysRevE2014,KrapfEtAl_NewJournalPhysics2018,bullerjohn_optimal_2020}}.}
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\footnotetext[2]{A common approach to estimating the variance of the mean of time-correlated data with unknown correlation time is the renormalization group blocking method of Flyvberg and Peterson~\cite{FlyvbjergAndPetersen_JChemPhys1989,Frenkel2023-ah}. In the SI, we compare this blocking method to our direct rescaling method (\cref{equ:varestMSD}) for estimating $\var{\oMSDi}$ from a set of random-walk trajectories. For our example data, direct rescaling performs better (gives more accurate estimates of $\var{\oMSDi}$).}
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\title{\papertitle}
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\affiliation{European Spallation Source ERIC, Data Management and Software Centre, Asmussens Allé 305, DK-2800 Kongens Lyngby, DK.}
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\affiliation{Diamond Light Source, Harwell Campus, Didcot, OX11 0DE, UK.}
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\author{Samuel W. Coles}
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\thanks{Present Address: Yusuf Hamied Department of Chemistry, University of Cambridge, Lensfield Road, Cambridge, CB2 1EW, UK.}
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\affiliation{Department of Chemistry, University of Bath, Claverton Down, Bath, BA2 7AY, UK}
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\affiliation{The Faraday Institution, Quad One, Harwell Science and Innovation Campus, Didcot, OX11 0RA, UK}
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\author{Benjamin J. Morgan}
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\end{equation}
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where $\Delta\mathbf{r}{(t)}$ is the displacement of a diffusing particle in the time interval $t$.
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Because numerical simulations are finite in time and space, MSDs obtained from simulation data always differ from the true ensemble average MSD.
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One can, however, compute an estimate of the self-diffusion coefficient, $\Dest$, by fitting a linear model to the observed MSD and using the gradient of this fitted model in place of $\MSD{t} / t$ in \cref{equ:einstein}~\footnote{While estimating $\D$ by fitting a linear model to MSD data is, perhaps, the most commonly used approach in the literature, alternative methods that avoid linear fitting of MSD data also exist; see, for example, Refs.~{\protect\cite{VestergaardEtAl_PhysRevE2014,KrapfEtAl_NewJournalPhysics2018,bullerjohn_optimal_2020}}.}.
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One can, however, compute an estimate of the self-diffusion coefficient, $\Dest$, by fitting a linear model to the observed MSD and using the gradient of this fitted model in place of $\MSD{t} / t$ in \cref{equ:einstein}~\cite{Note1,VestergaardEtAl_PhysRevE2014,KrapfEtAl_NewJournalPhysics2018,bullerjohn_optimal_2020}.
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The simplest approach to fitting a linear model to MSD data from simulation is ordinary least squares regression (OLS).
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OLS gives analytical expressions for the ``best fit'' regression coefficients (the slope and intercept) and their respective uncertainties, making it easy to implement and quick to perform.
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We model the statistical population of simulation MSDs as a multivariate normal distribution, using an analytical covariance matrix derived for an equivalent system of freely diffusing particles, with this covariance matrix parameterised from the observed simulation data.
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We then use Markov-chain Monte Carlo to sample the posterior distribution of linear models compatible with this multivariate normal model.
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The resulting posterior distribution provides an efficient estimate for $\D$ and allows the associated statistical uncertainty in $\Dest$ to be accurately quantified.
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This method is implemented in the open-source Python package \textsc{kinisi}~\cite{mccluskey_kinisi_2022}.
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This method is implemented in the open-source Python package \textsc{kinisi}~\cite{McCluskey2024}.
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\section{Background}
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\end{equation}
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By rescaling by the number of numerically-independent contributing sub-trajectories, rather than by the total number of observed squared displacements for time window $i$, we account for correlations between the squared displacements of each particle computed from overlapping time windows (further details are provided in the SI).
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The estimated variance $\varest{\oMSD}$ can be calculated from a single simulation trajectory, and provides an accurate estimate of the true variance $\var{\oMSD}$~\footnote{A common approach to estimating the variance of the mean of time-correlated data with unknown correlation time is the renormalization group blocking method of Flyvberg and Peterson~\cite{FlyvbjergAndPetersen_JChemPhys1989,Frenkel2023-ah}. In the SI, we compare this blocking method to our direct rescaling method (\cref{equ:varestMSD}) for estimating $\var{\oMSDi}$ from a set of random-walk trajectories. For our example data, direct rescaling performs better (gives more accurate estimates of $\var{\oMSDi}$).}.
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The estimated variance $\varest{\oMSD}$ can be calculated from a single simulation trajectory, and provides an accurate estimate of the true variance $\var{\oMSD}$~\cite{Note2,FlyvbjergAndPetersen_JChemPhys1989,Frenkel2023-ah}.
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To demonstrate this, we performed \num{4096} independent simulations of \num{128} particles undergoing a three-dimensional cubic-lattice random walk of \num{128} steps per particle.
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Using data from all \num{4096} simulations, we first compute the true simulation MSD and its variance (\cref{fig:msd}a).
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We also compute the MSD and estimated variance using data from a single simulation trajectory (\cref{fig:msd}b), using the scheme described above.
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It improves upon textbook approaches by providing accurate point estimates of $\D$ with near-optimal statistical efficiency, while also providing a reasonable description of the uncertainty in these estimates.
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The high statistical efficiency of our method allows for the use of smaller simulations, which can significantly reduce computational costs.
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Overall, our method offers significant advantages over more conventional methods of estimating self-diffusion coefficients from atomistic simulations.
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We have implemented this procedure in the open-source package \textsc{kinisi} \cite{mccluskey_kinisi_2022}, which we hope will support its use within the broader simulation community.
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We have implemented this procedure in the open-source package \textsc{kinisi} \cite{McCluskey2024}, which we hope will support its use within the broader simulation community.
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\section{Methods}
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Derivation of long-time limit covariance matrix for a system of freely diffusing particles, comparison of variance rescaling (\cref{equ:varestMSD}) and block renormalisation approaches, discussion of bias in the distribution of estimated variance of the estimated diffusion coefficient, and a comparison of OLS, WLS, and GLS as estimators for $\D$ applied to MSD data from simulations of \ce{Li7La3Zr2O12} (LLZO).
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Additional Electronic Supplementary Information (ESI) available at Ref.~\cite{mccluskey_github_2022} under an MIT license: A complete set of analysis/plotting scripts allowing for a fully reproducible and automated analysis workflow, using \textsc{showyourwork}~\cite{luger_showyourwork_2021}.
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The LLZO raw simulation trajectories are available on Zenodo shared under a CC BY-SA 4.0 licence~\cite{coles_llzo_zenodo_2022}.
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The method outlined in this work is implemented in the open-source Python package \textsc{kinisi}~\cite{mccluskey_kinisi_2022}, which is available under an MIT license.
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The method outlined in this work is implemented in the open-source Python package \textsc{kinisi}~\cite{McCluskey2024}, which is available under an MIT license.
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\section*{CR\lowercase{e}d\lowercase{i}T author statement}
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